Vasco Gabriel

More Information

• Research Interests
• Recent Publications
• Working Papers
• Teaching Interests
• My Curriculum Vitae

Vasco Gabriel graduated in Economics from the Technical University of Lisbon in 1995, where he was awarded the ICEP prize. He received a masters degree in Econometrics in 1998 from the same institution. In 2002, he completed his PhD in Economics at Birkbeck College, University of London. He taught at the University of Minho, Portugal, before being appointed as a Lecturer at the University of Surrey in 2004.

Research interests

Vasco's main field of specialization is Macroeconometrics, focusing on the application of non-linear methods, as well as general inference issues in macro models. His recent grant from the ESRC for work on inference problems in micro-based Phillips curves and policy rules was graded "Outstanding".

Recent publications

• “How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a `Calvo-type’ rule” (2009), Economics Letters, forthcoming, with Paul Levine and Christopher Spencer.
• • “New Keynesian Phillips Curves and Potential Identification Failures: a Generalized Empirical Likelihood Analysis”, forthcoming, Journal of Macroeconomics, with Luis F. Martins.
• • "Is There Really a Gap Between Aggregate Productivity and Technology?”, forthcoming, Applied Economics, with Ali Choudhary.
• • “The Consumption-Wealth Ratio under Asymmetric Adjustment”, (2008), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 12 (4 ), article 3, with Fernando Alexandre and Pedro Bação.
• • “Volatility in asset prices and long-run wealth effect estimates”, (2007), Economic Modelling, 26 (6), 1048-1064, with Fernando Alexandre and Pedro Bação.
• • “On the forecasting ability of ARFIMA models when infrequent breaks occur”, (2004), Econometrics Journal, 7, 455-475, with Luis Martins.
• • “Tests for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison”, (2003), Econometric Reviews, 22 (4), 411-435.
• • “Instability in Cointegrating Regressions: Further Discussion with an Application to the Portuguese Money Demand”, (2003), Applied Economics, 35, 893-900, with Artur Silva Lopes and Luis Catela Nunes.
• • “Cointegration and the joint confirmation hypothesis“, (2003) Economics Letters, 78 (1), 17-25.
• • “A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes“, (2002) Economics Letters, 76 (2), 213-221, with Martin Sola and Zacharias Psaradakis.

Current working papers

• ”Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Subject to Policy Changes: a Markov Switching Cointegration Approach” (2009), with Pataaree Sangduan
• ”On the (ir)relevance of direct supply-side effects of monetary policy” (2008), with Paul Levine, Christopher Spencer and Bo Yang.
• ”Taylor-type rules versus optimal policy in a Markov Switching economy” (2008), with Fernando Alexandre and Pedro Bação.

Teaching Interests

• Teaching Materials (EC412, EC603A, EC677)